The NYC Mayoral Primary has been kicked onto the national stage and I have been forced to watch it go down on my Twitter timeline. This has been an annoyance because I have been hearing about this primary for months, but an upside because this campaign has been a Total Drama Island that I can not stop watching. Here are my chances of each candidate winning and some though as to why.
Eric Adams — 60% chance
Adams has lead every poll so far and is the choice of Black and Older voters. He also has the backing of the Democratic Machine in the city. However, his time as a NYPD officer, the possibly of him living in New Jersey, and past statements have brought him negative press.
Kathryn Garcia — 23% chance
Garcia is the favorite of White voters, especially in Manhattan, YIMBYs, and moderates. She has come in a close second in quite a few polls to Adams. Since the last poll, she joined a 1-2 alliance with Andrew Yang. According to polling, Yang voters are the most likely to not rank anyone in slots 2-5, so picking up more Yang voters in later rounds has a good chance of helping her.
Maya Wiley — 10% chance
Since the meltdown of the Morales Campaign, Wiley has been the favorite of progressives. She has never topped the first round of any poll, but in a few, she has come in close second to Adams. There is a chance that she can activate younger progressive voters who preferred Bernie Sanders in 2016 or just be ranked in the final slots on their ballot and carve out a path to victory.
Andrew Yang — 5% chance
An early favorite, Yang has been in a slow slide down the polls. The #YangGang is sizeable, but is made up unreliable voters. He also has problems both picking up votes in later rounds of ranked choice voting and passing votes onto other candidates. There is a chance that the 1-2 Alliance with Garcia could solve some of these problems, but it happened after early voting started.
Someone else — 3% chance
It is the first major use of ranked choice voting. There is a chance of hundreds of small things that could change the outcome of the primary. Polling in municipal races is extremely difficult. Maybe Paperboy Prince is activating a base of voters that are not captured in the polls. Mayor Paperboy Price does have a nice ring to it and they would be the first nonbinary mayor of New York. That could be fun…